The World Meteorological Organization says 2026 is on course to be one of the four warmest years in the modern record, extending a sequence in which every year from 2015 through 2026 ranks among the warmest. The UN agency released its provisional climate update on November 9 at the opening of the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye.
Global mean surface temperature from January through September was about 1.47 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, with an uncertainty range of 0.13 degrees. The value is close to the whole-year averages for 2023 and 2025 and below the 2024 record. Because the report is provisional, it does not establish the final ranking for 2026.
El Niño developed during the year and intensified after August. WMO expects it to continue into early 2027 and says the pattern typically raises annual global temperature by roughly 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius. That does not mean every region will be warmer or drier at the same time; El Niño shifts weather risks differently across regions and seasons.
Ocean indicators remain a central concern. The report says global mean sea level reached its highest point in the satellite record, which began in 1993. Preliminary information through July points to a tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat content. Warmer oceans can contribute to sea-level rise, marine heat waves and greater stress on ecosystems, while also influencing weather patterns.
The agency describes major human and economic effects from extreme weather during 2026, including heat, flooding and high-mountain hazards. Attribution of an individual event requires dedicated scientific analysis, but a warmer climate changes the background conditions in which extremes occur. The report combines observations from multiple recognized datasets rather than relying on a single thermometer network or model.
Early warning is one area of measured progress. WMO says 136 countries reported having multi-hazard early-warning systems in 2025, up from 56 in 2015. Coverage and quality still vary. A warning system must connect forecasts with local communication, accessible instructions and the ability to act; a technically accurate alert has limited value if it reaches people too late or offers no practical response.
New York readers encounter the global trend through coastal risk, heat, rainfall, insurance and infrastructure. A global annual anomaly does not predict the city's next storm, and the WMO update is not a local seasonal forecast. It does provide context for long-lived decisions such as drainage capacity, building resilience, emergency planning and protection of heat-vulnerable communities.
The final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is scheduled for March 2027, when additional data and scientific contributions will be available. Until then, the November update is the agency's best provisional assessment: exceptional global warmth continues, ocean and sea-level indicators are at record highs, and El Niño may amplify risks into the coming year.
For public officials and residents, the distinction between climate monitoring and daily weather forecasting is essential. The global report guides long-term risk planning, while local forecasts and alerts guide a decision this week. Using both time scales prevents a single cold spell from being mistaken for a reversal of the global trend and prevents a global average from being presented as a precise forecast for one neighborhood. WMO's final report will add the complete annual observations and permit firmer comparisons with earlier years.
Primary sources: World Meteorological Organization State of the Climate Update; WMO climate update press release. Reviewed November 10, 2026. Development: Climate update released November 9, 2026.